Evaluation of the BMBF-Foresight-Process

In order to verify and ensure its efficiency and effectiveness, the BMBF-Foresight-Process is systematically evaluated.

Target and concept of the current evaluation can be summarized in the following way:

From the perspective of a process oriented evaluation the BMBF-Foresight-Process presents a comprehensive master plan, within which numerous partial activities with differentiated partial aims and various actors are systematically associated. It can therefore be understood as a complex multi-actor process that is characterised by high complexity as well as high dynamics and a long-term orientation. Analyses and intermediary results are constantly fed into the running process for its optimisation.

The current evaluation aims at

• analysing the BMBF-Foresight-Process systematically,
• deducing recommendations for action in process regulation from systematic target-performance comparisons,
• giving hints for designing and anchoring of a long-term oriented foresight-system and
• thereby actively supporting the BMBF as sponsor of the process in its continual enhancement of prospect activities.

In order to fulfil these targets a two-phase approach with respective specific partial aims is realised: While in phase 1 of the evaluation (until June 2009) the focus lies on an accompanying analysis, evaluation and optimisation of the running process, in phase 2 (until September 2010) especially the integration and realisation of the process results are observed.

The questions examined in the context of the evaluation are related to the designing of the process itself as well as its communication and acceptance plus the alignment of activities according to the requirements of the stakeholders. To answer these, a three-dimensional evaluation approach was developed, which combines target-performance comparisons, approximate and detailed evaluation and the consideration of the overall process vs. individual partial processes in a reasonable way.

Figure: Dimensions of the evaluation in the BMBF-Foresight-Process

The evaluation is conducted by the Institut für Technologie und Arbeit e. V., Kaiserslautern.